Cool Imoge

Daily technical outlook
EURUSD

Trading strategy: small short at 1.2290, stop at 1.2360 (0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.2230, 2nd objective at 1.2100

Support at 1.2150 came under pressure yesterday as the euro continued to pullback after breaking below 1.2250 which provided support last week. Short-term sentiment remains slightly bullish as the median retracement of 1.1875-1.2465 is still intact – around 1.2170. Not far below 1.2150 comes 1.2100 which is the next support to watch – formed by the 61.8% of mentioned up leg. More downside action is likely – as long as upside will be capped by 1.2300. Above 1.2300 – uptrend resumes. Current quote is 1.2220 @05:55 GMT

Support: 1.2150, 1.2100 and 1.2000
Resistance: 1.2250, 1.2300, 1.2360 and 1.2400
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bearish

Yen strengthen further, EUR/JPY on fresh 8 ½ - year low
JPY is displaying a notorious sweeping effect across the FX Market, smashing major currencies across the board. The Japanese typhoon shook off the market without making concessions at all. The currency is driven mostly by risk aversion on Europe debt concerns coupled with a faltering economic recovery.

Against its main rival, USD/JPY dipped down to 88.52, extending its 7 week low. EUR/JPY crushed nearly 200 pips to hit a new fresh 8 ½ year low at 107.80, not seen since November 2001. Current price is resting at 108.05, GBP/JPY also fell to 132.95 level, while AUD/JPY was sagged to 75.72, marking a fresh new 3-week low.

College students are usually too late to learn the difference between what their needs and wants are. Around 1.6 million individual bankruptcies have been filed in year 2003. That was up by 7.4% from the previous year. This has been found in the U.S. Courts' report and it suggested that many the majority of the U.S. adults has not yet grasped the idea of personal finance or the basics of it.

So it's not the wonder of the century that the majority of the college kids do not know the art of handling money either. While their parents want nothing but the best for them, they do not hesitate to provide what these young ones wanted. Unfortunately, fiscal responsibility at times gets lost in designer clothes, fancy piano lessons and high end cell phones.

Richard Boyum, a professor of counseling and psychology at the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, commented on this recently. According to him, typical college students more or less take money management seriously, but picks up a few common mistakes as well.

"There's a whole world of opportunities to expend money and many students are under the assumption that money is meant to be spent, rather than saved," Boyum says. "One day I saw one of my students showing off in brand a new and expensive looking jacket. She said the jacket's retail price is $200, but she got it somehow on sale and managed to 'save' $100. Then I said to her, 'Show me that $100.' And I explained that she hadn't saved the $100, she'd actually spent the $100! This analogy surprises most students, though."

Many young adults are troubled with their credit cards. To them, the credit limit is a juicy invitation to keep spending till it hits that limit. These people are considering it to be their own money. What Boyum tired to explain to his students is that credit always comes from a bank--not grandpa. Surprisingly enough, this ideal was like a wake up call for some students: Banks exist to make lots of money and consumers must pay thick interest on the balance when they've missed the deadline or due date.

If you've read Jack Schwager's 'The New Market Wizards,' he finds there are three things the best of the best traders have in common. One of them is they all have an edge in trading. What is meant by having an edge?

It means having a unique approach, system or perspective on the market that is tested, clear and unique. They find these edge's and apply them to the markets. Your goal as a trader is to find an edge. The question is which one?

In reality, there are many edge's which will work. There are tons of traders who can make a system work while others cannot with the same system. It is not too important which one you take as long as it has;

a) an edge

b) it matches your overall personality

Finding an edge with a in place is not hard, finding one with b takes a little more effort because it requires you to understand yourself. It means finding a trading method you can trade and live with day in day out - not something that satisfies your ego or fantasies of what you'd like trading to be. We all want to make boatloads of money as fast as possible - this is the time of instant gratification. And rightfully so, who wouldn't prefer making money now as opposed to 3mos or 1year later?

The bottom line is you have to find an edge that is adaptable but to find an edge you have to understand how things work and what to look for. Once you have those, you can go about finding an edge. What we are going to cover in this eBook is;

1) How things work in the forex market

2) How to find the 'where' to get in

3) How you can get an edge knowing these two things

EUR/USD. Uptrend broken

EUR/USD (1.2287) is down slightly overnight. It rallied a bit in Asian trading before selling off hard in the European morning. It is stabilizing coming into the US open. After failing at 1.25 Monday, spot slipped and has since stabilized. However, the lack of upward momentum has caused it to breach the recent uptrend.

Data release: Euro Zone industrial orders rose less than expected (0.9%, consensus 1.6%). Nonetheless, the EUR has managed to stabilize after selling off earlier in the European day.

Technicals:

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Trend: Daily higher; Weekly higher.
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Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily neutral; Weekly oversold.
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Support / Resistance Levels: Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.2245 (Jun 23 low), 1.1877 (Jun7 low), 1.1827 (Mar’06 low), and 1.1640 (Nov’05 low). Resistance lies at 1.2487 (Jun21 high), 1.2672 (May 21 high), 1.3094 (May10 high), 1.3692 (Apr12 high), 1.3818 (Mar17 high), 1.4026 (Feb3 high), 1.4194 (Jan25 high), 1.4579 (Jan13 high) and 1.4626 (Nov low).

Positioning:

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The CFTC, EUR, non-commercial, net position (-55K) moderated sharply, consistent with the recent uptrend in EUR/USD. However, we’d caution that after the position moderated from a record +119K in May’07, EUR continued to strengthen from 1.35 to 1.60.
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The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) slipped overnight along with spot, but remains within its uptrend from the record low as the options market attempts to price in a rebound in spot.
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Implied Vol (3m) ticked up overnight but remains in a downtrend from the highs since Apr’09.

Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlations that EUR/USD has during the past 60 days are the 5yr yield spread (positive), the 10yr yield spread (positive), the US10yr yield (positive) and the SPX (positive).